Economy

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June Unemployment Report Shows Beginning of Recovery

2 min readStates across the U.S. set multiple single day records for new COVID-19 cases this past week. On June 27th, Florida reported 9,500 new cases, breaking its own record for daily new cases, which it set just a day earlier. Driven primarily by Southern and Southwestern states, the surge has forced legislatures to act. Florida has…

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Powell’s Got the Power: How the Fed Brought Funding Markets Back from the Dead

5 min readFunding markets are back from the dead. A little over two months ago, liquidity in short-term markets all but dissipated amidst a broader market panic in reaction to COVID-19. But fast action by the Fed prevented what might have turned into a full-blown liquidity freeze reminiscent of the one that helped precipitate the 2008 financial…

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Interest Rate Outlook: Markets Hopeful

2 min readProtesting Police Brutality Nationwide protests continued for the seventh day and night following the killing of George Floyd while in the custody of Minneapolis police. President Trump has considered invoking the Insurrection Act of 1807, which would allow the deployment of active-duty military personnel in response to civil unrest. The law was last used in…

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Interest Rate Outlook: Bond Market Liquidity

2 min readFOMC Meeting The Federal Reserve has taken extraordinary steps over the past six weeks to shield the economy from the massive fallout of the virus pandemic, including emergency interest rate cuts, massive bond purchases and the opening of multiple lending facilities to provide liquidity and backstops to the fixed income markets. Following their regularly scheduled…

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Interest Rate Outlook: Bond Market Liquidity Normalizing

2 min readEconomic Shutdown We are only just seeing initial readings on the state of the post-COVID 19 economy and much will unfold in the months ahead. Data released in early April reflects the dismal reality of the large-scale shutdown of the US economic growth engine. Jobless claims have surged to record levels, with more than 22…

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Interest Rate Outlook: Federal Reserve Cuts Rates Once Again

2 min readIn a move that was widely expected, the Federal Reserve cut rates last Wednesday by 25 basis points to the 1.50% to 1.75% range. Seven officials voted for the cut, and two (Esther George and Eric Rosengren) dissented again in favor of no change in monetary policy. Because the rate reduction had been anticipated, the…

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Interest Rate Outlook: Volatile Bond Markets

2 min readEverchanging speculation on tariff war developments continues to drive bond market volatility as well as projections on potential interest rate cuts. Earlier this month, a mini-deal between the Trump administration and Chinese officials buoyed market sentiment when additional tariffs slated for implementation in December were delayed and China agreed to buy additional US agricultural products….