Economy & Rates

October Mid-Month Portfolio Update

October Mid-Month Portfolio Update

3 min readLabor Market Remains Solid but Data Could be Noisy Ahead The September employment report was solid overall but with hurricanes Helene and Milton hitting the Southeast of the United States, labor statistics could be noisy ahead. September Employment Report: Looking ahead, the October jobs report (which will be released on November 1st) will incorporate layoffs…

What’s In Your Cart? Consumer Products Sales During Economic Transitions

What’s In Your Cart? Consumer Products Sales During Economic Transitions

6 min readRecent inflation readings have shown promise that price increases are returning to the Fed’s 2% target, a positive for the consumer and economy that may allow the Fed to pivot towards rate cuts. Simultaneously, consumer product manufacturers are facing a pivot of their own. Changes in consumer shopping patterns suggest that the resilience consumers touted…

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What Would a Second Trump Term Mean for the Fed?

7 min readIn April, The Wall Street Journal reported that former President Donald Trump’s advisory team has been drafting proposals that could potentially alter the structure of the Federal Reserve, in the event he is elected for a second term. The former President’s team has yet to publicly confirm the existence of such plans, but the reporting…

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June Employment Report: Labor Market Cools at a Steady Pace

2 min readThe economy added 206K non-farm payrolls in June, slightly more than anticipated, but the strong headline number was largely offset by softer aspects of the Labor Report. Non-farm payrolls in May and April were revised down by a combined 111K, netting this data release to 95K new jobs. Additionally, the unemployment rate rose 0.1% to…