5 min readA New Sheriff Is in Town As widely expected, the Federal Open Market Committee left the federal funds target range unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%. Key takeaways from the meeting are outlined below: Summary of Economic Projections Warsh Press Conference Market Reaction
7 min readJob Growth in June | AI Impact Limited The June employment report pointed to a labor market that continues to demonstrate resilience. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 172,000, while the three-month average payroll gain rose to 188,000, the strongest pace since 2024. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.3%, although on an unrounded basis it improved slightly,…
6 min readCore PCE Indicates Broadening Price Pressures The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), delivered both encouraging and concerning signals in the April report. The good news was that monthly inflation readings came in below expectations, with headline PCE rising 0.4% and Core PCE increasing 0.2%. While gasoline and other energy prices rose 5.5% during…
6 min readLabor Stability and Firm Inflation Keep the Fed Cautious Labor Market: The April employment report pointed to continued stability in the labor market, with nonfarm payrolls exceeding expectations for the second consecutive month (+115,000 in April following +185,000 in March). This marked the first back-to-back monthly job gains since May 2025 and remains well above the Federal Reserve’s…
6 min readFed on Hold, But Tilt Shifts Hawkish as Dissents Rise At its April 29th meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee held the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%–3.75%. Notably, the decision included four dissents, the most since 1992. Governor Stephen Miran dissented in favor of a 25 basis point rate cut, while Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, and Dallas Fed President…
4 min readMarch Labor Market Data Rebounds Labor market data showed signs of improvement in early April, following February’s weaker-than-expected report: While the unemployment rate edged lower to 4.3% (4.256% unrounded), the improvement was driven in part by a decline in the labor force participation rate, which fell to its lowest level since 2021 as nearly 400,000 individuals exited the labor…
5 min readQ1 2026 Recap Geopolitical tensions drove markets in Q1 2026, with the Iran conflict overshadowing much of the quarter. Early signs of escalation—highlighted by comments from Donald Trump in January—began pushing oil prices higher, though Treasury yields were initially driven by monetary policy expectations, reflecting markets anticipation for one to two rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. Following the…
2 min readFOMC Maintains Target Range, Outlook is Uncertain As widely expected, the Federal Open Market Committee left the federal funds target range unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%. Key takeaways from the meeting are outlined below: Statement Summary of Economic Projections Powell’s Press Conference Market Reaction
3 min readMarch Madness in Markets The conflict with Iran has now entered its third week and has triggered notable shifts across global markets. Oil prices have spiked, Treasury yields have moved higher, equities have declined, and market expectations for Fed rate cuts have been scaled back. Much of the market’s attention remains focused on the Strait of Hormuz…
6 min readFed Tone Suggests Patience on Rate Cuts We have seen a noticeable shift in the Federal Reserve’s tone over the past several weeks, including comments from several of its more dovish members that reinforced expectations that the FOMC will remain on pause for the time being. Importantly, the shift in tone from policymakers who had previously leaned dovish has delayed market expectations for additional rate cuts. Higher energy prices resulting from the war…