6 min readLabor Stability and Firm Inflation Keep the Fed Cautious Labor Market: The April employment report pointed to continued stability in the labor market, with nonfarm payrolls exceeding expectations for the second consecutive month (+115,000 in April following +185,000 in March). This marked the first back-to-back monthly job gains since May 2025 and remains well above the Federal Reserve’s…
6 min readFed on Hold, But Tilt Shifts Hawkish as Dissents Rise At its April 29th meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee held the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%–3.75%. Notably, the decision included four dissents, the most since 1992. Governor Stephen Miran dissented in favor of a 25 basis point rate cut, while Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, and Dallas Fed President…
4 min readMarch Labor Market Data Rebounds Labor market data showed signs of improvement in early April, following February’s weaker-than-expected report: While the unemployment rate edged lower to 4.3% (4.256% unrounded), the improvement was driven in part by a decline in the labor force participation rate, which fell to its lowest level since 2021 as nearly 400,000 individuals exited the labor…
5 min readQ1 2026 Recap Geopolitical tensions drove markets in Q1 2026, with the Iran conflict overshadowing much of the quarter. Early signs of escalation—highlighted by comments from Donald Trump in January—began pushing oil prices higher, though Treasury yields were initially driven by monetary policy expectations, reflecting markets anticipation for one to two rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. Following the…
2 min readFOMC Maintains Target Range, Outlook is Uncertain As widely expected, the Federal Open Market Committee left the federal funds target range unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%. Key takeaways from the meeting are outlined below: Statement Summary of Economic Projections Powell’s Press Conference Market Reaction
3 min readMarch Madness in Markets The conflict with Iran has now entered its third week and has triggered notable shifts across global markets. Oil prices have spiked, Treasury yields have moved higher, equities have declined, and market expectations for Fed rate cuts have been scaled back. Much of the market’s attention remains focused on the Strait of Hormuz…
6 min readFed Tone Suggests Patience on Rate Cuts We have seen a noticeable shift in the Federal Reserve’s tone over the past several weeks, including comments from several of its more dovish members that reinforced expectations that the FOMC will remain on pause for the time being. Importantly, the shift in tone from policymakers who had previously leaned dovish has delayed market expectations for additional rate cuts. Higher energy prices resulting from the war…
4 min readLabor Market: Mixed Signals, Strong Payroll Surprise Due to the second government shutdown, the monthly jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics was delayed by several days. In the interim, a series of labor market releases pointed to potential softness in employment trends: Collectively, these reports suggested mounting weakness in labor demand and raised concerns heading into the official…
5 min readCentral Casting: You’re Hired — Fed Chair Edition President Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the 17th Chair of the Federal Reserve to succeed Jerome Powell, whose term ends on May 15, 2026. Although Warsh had been under consideration for several months, he only emerged as the front-runner after President Trump signaled on January 16th that he was reluctant to nominate Kevin Hassett, who was previously…
4 min readFed Voting Rotation Adds Hawkish Tilt in 2026 The annual rotation of regional Federal Reserve Bank presidents with a vote on monetary policy introduces a more hawkish tilt in 2026. All four presidents rotating into voting positions this year are generally inclined toward a patient approach on rate cuts, while the Board of Governors remains…