9 min readCould potential changes in the economy from the end of the Fed’s tightening cycle lead to a higher neutral rate? Introduction With the Federal Reserve System (the “Fed”) nearing the end of its tightening cycle, the question for investors has shifted to whether rates can truly remain “higher for longer”, to quote the current in-phrase…
11 min readIntroduction By Lance Pan, CFA Since we started publishing the annual “themes to watch” series in 2008, this edition marks our 16th anniversary of looking at key market-moving trends for institutional cash investors. To shake off our Covid-induced autophobia (fear of being alone), I enlisted members of my credit research team to co-author last year’s…
2 min readInsight and Perspective on the economy and your cash portfolio After multiple interest rate increases since March 2022, institutional cash investors are welcoming higher returns but wary of the possibility that an economic slowdown or recession might increase credit risk in their cash portfolio. Watch our latest Quarterly Cash Update for insights and perspective on…
2 min readIn a widely expected move, the Federal Reserve raised the overnight lending rate today by 75 basis points for the 4th time in 4 meetings. Following the FOMC’s action, the rate now rests at the 3.75% to 4.00% range. The Fed’s 2022 tightening activity has been extraordinary for a central bank with a history of…
8 min readInflation and recession, two words on the top of every investor’s mind right now. In our recent post on Inflation Winners and Losers, we talked about how the near-term outlook for inflation is relatively entrenched. This matters because the Fed has thrown the weight of its credibility on reducing inflation, raising interest rates aggressively since…
3 min readThe global economic landscape and cash investing have experienced sizeable market shifts in the past year due to the ongoing disruptions to supply chains, geopolitical tensions with the conflict in Ukraine, rising inflation across the globe and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate tightening cycle. Institutional cash investors will need to monitor all these ongoing disruptions…
6 min readLIBOR entered its next phase on January 1st, 2022. The date marked when no new financial contracts could be priced off LIBOR, which underpinned more than $200 trillion in loans , contracts, and derivatives as of the end of 2020. LIBOR (the London Interbank Offered Rate) will still be published as a reference rate for…
2 min readThe Fed held its first meeting of 2022 last week and erased any lingering doubts, of which there were few, that it will raise the overnight lending rate when it next convenes in mid-March. In the press release following the meeting, the FOMC stated that “the Committee expects it will soon be appropriate to raise…
16 min readIntroduction It has been our tradition to offer up three broad themes that will likely have the greatest impact on cash investments in the new year. After the research staff endured 20 months of work-from-home, I wanted to reward endurance by inviting them to each pick a theme for this look-ahead piece, hence the “three…
18 min readWe identify three themes to watch for cash investors each year. For 2021, we focus on vaccines, ESG and LIBOR replacement. DOWNLOAD FULL REPORT Introduction At the start of each year, we typically name three broad themes that we think will have the greatest potential impact on the short-term debt markets. Our 2020 picks posed…