4 min readIn a move that surprised no one, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) cut rates by 25 basis points at its October meeting, the third cut in as many months. The current Federal Funds rate range now lies at 1.50%-1.75%, still relatively high compared to short-term rates in other G8 economies and still well off…
2 min readEverchanging speculation on tariff war developments continues to drive bond market volatility as well as projections on potential interest rate cuts. Earlier this month, a mini-deal between the Trump administration and Chinese officials buoyed market sentiment when additional tariffs slated for implementation in December were delayed and China agreed to buy additional US agricultural products….
3 min readToday, the Federal Open Market Committee announced a 25 basis point cut in the overnight fed funds rate to a range from 1.75% to 2.00%, the second such action this year. In a normal week, building anticipation for the Fed’s policy decision and press conference would typically dominate the markets, but turmoil in the repo…
2 min readCo-authored by: Carter Bourassa On Wednesday, August 14th, 2019, the yield curve inverted when the 10-year Treasury note fell below the yield of the 2-year note. Equity markets dipped in reaction, with the three major indexes all suffering losses of more than 2.9%. Yield curve inversions are among the more reliable recession indicators; Credit Suisse…
2 min readThe fallout from the ongoing U.S. and China trade war continues to impact both countries and may be contributing to global weakness. Chinese economic growth fell to 6.2% in the second quarter, the lowest level since record-keeping began in March of 1992, as the value of the country’s exports to the U.S. dropped by 8.2%…
2 min readChinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Donald Trump agreed to resume trade negotiations ahead of the G20 summit last weekend, with the U.S. granting a reprieve on certain Huawei restrictions and on further tariff increases. China agreed to buy additional American agricultural goods in exchange. Stock markets surged on Monday in reaction to the…
2 min readTrade Dispute Escalation The apparent lack of progress in U.S.-China trade negotiations stoked volatility in the financial markets in early May. On Friday, President Trump imposed 25% tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods with China responding in kind on $60 billion of U.S. goods. And just this morning, Trump targeted Chinese telecom giant Huawei…
2 min readOverview The FOMC concluded its two-day meeting on Wednesday, May 1st and, as expected, kept the fed funds target range unchanged at 2.25-2.50%. Echoing its comments in March, the Fed expressed comfort with their current “wait and see” approach to monetary policy. The equity markets declined slightly as Fed Chair Powell attributed the weakness in…
5 min readWhen the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported early this month that non-farm employment rose by only 20,000 jobs in February—a huge miss from consensus estimates of about 175,000 new jobs—it threw many observers for a loop. Was the low number an indicator of a slowdown in growth? Or could it be written off as a…