21 min readIntroduction: Turning the Page—Who’s at the Controls in 2026? By Lance Pan, CFA If 2024 was the year of the “soft landing,” 2025 became the year the U.S. economy decided to run a marathon in spikes. Fueled by an insatiable demand for Artificial Intelligence investment and adoption, real GDP growth defied gravity, accelerating to 3.8%…
19 min readIntroduction By Lance Pan, CFA 2024 was a remarkable year for financial markets in many respects. The estimated 2.7% growth in real gross domestic product (GDP) nearly doubled the Federal Reserve’s median projection of 1.4% a year earlier.[1] The S&P 500 stock index rose 23.3% on the heels of an equally impressive gain of 24.2%…
19 min readDOWNLOAD FULL REPORT Introduction By Lance Pan, CFA “It was the best of times, it was the worst of times.” As the new year approaches and I prepare this introduction to our annual market outlook on cash investments, I can’t think of a better way to describe the past year than this quote by Charles…
18 min readWe identify three themes to watch for cash investors each year. For 2021, we focus on vaccines, ESG and LIBOR replacement. DOWNLOAD FULL REPORT Introduction At the start of each year, we typically name three broad themes that we think will have the greatest potential impact on the short-term debt markets. Our 2020 picks posed…
3 min readEvery January, we point to three trends cash managers should keep an eye on in the coming year. In 2019, we hit the nail on the head when we highlighted the inverted yield curve, trade wars, and Brexit. Each of those issues kept institutional cash managers busy all year. First, the Fed reversed course with…
14 min readDOWNLOAD FULL REPORT Abstract We identify three themes to watch for cash investors each year. For 2020, we comment on the Fed’s neutral stance, the continued non-solution for repo market liquidity, and the popularity of ESG (environmental, social and governance) investing. Introduction At the start of each year, we typically name three broad themes that…
2 min readThe great paradox of 2017 was the relative calm in short-term debt markets in the face of unprecedented turbulence in the daily news cycle. Our new President’s unconventional communication style did not lead to the financial market volatility many had predicted. And despite ongoing partisan political turmoil, multiple terror incidents, an uncertain start to Brexit,…
4 min readAbstract At the start of each year, we typically name three broad market trends or events that could potentially have the greatest impact on the short-term debt market. For 2018, we think central bank tightening, tax reform and event risk will have the most impact on short-term debt markets. We are generally sanguine about the…
4 min readAbstract We select Trumponomics, the debt ceiling rollercoaster and geopolitics as three main themes to watch in 2017. Federal stimulus may in fact be underwhelming and a stronger dollar and trade wars may further erode the effect of increased government spending. The immense size of government money market funds ($2.2 trillion) may present challenges throughout…
1 min readAbstract 2016 will be a year of transition on many fronts for corporate cash investors. The Federal Reserve is expected to remain accommodative in removing monetary stimulus. There will be increased clarity following money market fund reform in October. Credit markets should also manage well through moderate credit deterioration and wider spreads. The primary job…