2 min readAbstract Three C’s – China, commodities and central bank actions – contribute to a slower and shallower path for higher rates Many market pundits continue to argue for one or two rate hikes this year, but most debt investors now accept that the fed funds will return to the normal range of 3-4% over a…
2 min readAbstract Lower oil prices and easier central bank policies outside the U.S. led the market to question the Fed’s timetable for raising interest rates. While both disinflationary and expansionary forces are present, financial markets appear to be focusing on the former, as the latter is still materializing. The net effect may allow the Fed to…
2 min readAbstract The Federal Reserve introduced the new reverse repo facility to control the level and volatility of short-term interest rates, to help relieve repo collateral shortage and to better regulate the tri-party repo market. The likely impact includes the avoidance of negative yield, the addition of a high quality counterparty to the marketplace, more responsive…
2 min readAbstract We do not foresee a meaningful rise in short-term interest rates even as the Fed may begin tapering bond purchases. The fed funds rate, the key factor affecting short-term rates, likely will not start to rise prior to mid-2015. Investors should continue to look for opportunities further up the yield curve with separate account…
3 min readAbstract The almost comical sounding term “Operation Twist” has been creeping into the financial media since last December as Federal Reserve officials and market commentators discussed innovative ways to revive the stagnant economy. This phrase became a household name on September 21st, when the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to simultaneously buy $400 billion…
3 min readIntroduction How long does it take for “green shoots” to grow into a “soft patch”? For the U.S. economy, it has taken a little more than two years. In his famous 60 Minutes interview on March 15, 2009, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke popularized the phrase “green shoots” to describe the growing confidence in the…
2 min readIntroduction With just two days remaining until the Federal Reserve Board’s key policy meeting, it is almost impossible to avoid the term “quantitative easing round two (QE2)” in the financial press. Ever since the keynote speech by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke last August , rumors have been rampant that the Fed will implement a daring…
2 min readFederal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke recently laid out his plans to lawmakers on how the Fed will eliminate programs, when needed, which pumped hundreds of billions of dollars into the financial system. In an op-ed piece for the Wall Street Journal, he wrote that the strategy is ready to be put to use, but noted…
3 min readExecutive Summary From administering aggressive interest rate cuts to providing longer-term liquidity to financial firms; from accepting non-traditional asset collateral to assisting the Bear Stearns takeover by JPMorgan Chase; this Federal Reserve is unlike any we have seen in recent history. By throwing out the rulebook of central banking, some pundits say the Fed sets…
2 min readExecutive Summary With 400 basis points of Fed Funds rate increases over the past 24 months, investors are rightfully anxious about the impact of the Fed tightening policy. Our study finds that historically falling core CPI data tends to encourage the Fed to stop raising rates. Other key indicators, however, do not seem to have…