2 min readThe Fed took more than a few people by surprise several weeks ago when it suddenly signaled there would be no interest rate hikes in 2019. Especially when it pointed to “slower growth of household spending and business fixed investment.” Then, in seemingly no time at all, the yield curve inverted. Anyone will tell you…
13 min readDOWNLOAD FULL REPORT Abstract The March Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision was a major market event that directly resulted in an inverted yield curve. The Fed’s interest rate and growth outlook change echoed other recent moves by central banks that may indicate the end of a tightening monetary cycle. The inverted curve may be…
5 min readWhen the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported early this month that non-farm employment rose by only 20,000 jobs in February—a huge miss from consensus estimates of about 175,000 new jobs—it threw many observers for a loop. Was the low number an indicator of a slowdown in growth? Or could it be written off as a…
26 min readDOWNLOAD FULL REPORT Abstract With the March 29th deadline for the UK to leave the European Union looming, there is still no decision about how the departure will be managed. In the two years since a referendum forced the UK government to trigger Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty indicating their intention to leave the…
2 min readWhat a difference a year makes. Every January we publish a report analyzing top trends to monitor in the coming year. Last year, we noted the relative calm in short-term debt markets, a full-employment economy boosted by tax-cut legislation, and expectations that the Fed would continue its series of slow, steady and predictable rate hikes…
14 min readAbstract We have identified the Fed and a flattening yield curve, trade wars and a global slowdown, and Brexit and other uncertainties as the three main themes to watch in 2019. Compared to 2018, we think 2019 will be a bit more challenging for short-term liquidity investors. A flatter yield curve may attract more non-traditional…
2 min readTrade wars. Stock market volatility. An economy on the verge of overheating. Rising uncertainty about the Fed’s next moves. Welcome to 2019. Whatever happened to that more placid era of zero interest rates, when the Fed signaled its first tentative rate hikes months in advance? When that beautiful, unbroken string of positive monthly job reports…
14 min readCo-authored by: Matthew Paniati Abstract The past few years have been mostly predictable for investors, with an expanding economy accompanied by steadily rising interest rates and asset prices. In this two-part series, we examine some recent developments and their implications for the current environment. In part two, we look at the current state of fiscal…
2 min readFor corporate cash investors managing portfolios during an economic expansion, “what goes up, must come down” is a good rule to live by. The current decade-long expansion in the U.S.—among the longest on record—has defied that maxim so far. But as it matures into old age, risks for investors are reemerging. Our November white paper,…
12 min readCo-authored by: Spyros Qendro, CFA Abstract The past few years have been predictable for investors, with an expanding economy accompanied by steadily rising interest rates and asset prices. In this two-part series, we look at some recent developments and their implications for the current environment. In part one, we look at recent equity market volatility,…