3 min readThe Time Has Come To Cut Rates In his keynote address at the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, Federal Reserve Chair Powell said the Fed now feels it is time to adjust monetary policy. His comment followed the release of the minutes from the Fed’s July FOMC meeting, which showed “several” members were in…
4 min readReturn of the Dual Mandate “For a long time, the risks were more that we would fail to hit our inflation target…. we’re very much aware that we have two-sided risks now.” This was a quote from Federal Reserve Chair Powell when he spoke to Congress last week, acknowledging that elevated inflation “is not the…
3 min readRetail Sales Disappoints, Again For the second consecutive month, retail sales came in lower than expected and showed signs that the effects of higher borrowing costs could be impacting US consumers. The May reading rose +0.1% while the flat April reading was revised lower to -0.2%. The Control Group, which feeds into the consumption component…
3 min readLabor Market Data is Mixed 2024 Inflation Data May Finally be Moderating Economic Data Leads to Ongoing Rate Volatility The first half of June brought a fresh roller coaster ride of volatile yields. The 2-year note is one of the tenors most impacted by future monetary policy, and June began with the 2-year yield declining…
1 min readThe early-stage debt financing market, which includes venture debt, had its foundation rattled little more than a year ago when its de facto leader, Silicon Valley Bank, suffered a major crisis. This event subsequently triggered a broader venture banking upheaval that reverberated throughout the venture debt markets. Watch a recording (5/08/2024) of Capital Advisors Group’s…
7 min readIntroduction The Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) meeting last month was perhaps the most consequential central bank meeting of the entire year. The BOJ raised interest rates by 10 bps to 0-0.10%, all-in-all a small amount in magnitude. However, this marked the first interest rate increase by the central bank in 17 years. Moreover, it marked…
15 min readAbstract BBB-rated debt continues to offer new possibilities for cash investors. Although it involves taking on incremental credit risk, allowing purchase of these securities can help alleviate supply shortages while also offering additional return opportunities. Should investors look into adding BBB names to their portfolios, we recommend that they follow these principles. Guiding Principles: Introduction…
4 min readQ1 2024 Performance: Risk Assets Outperform The first quarter of 2024 saw everything from stocks, gold and even Bitcoin rise to record highs as it becomes increasingly likely that the Fed will be able to achieve a soft landing for the U.S. economy. Treasury yields were mixed during the first quarter with 1-month to 6-month…
19 min readDOWNLOAD FULL REPORT Introduction By Lance Pan, CFA “It was the best of times, it was the worst of times.” As the new year approaches and I prepare this introduction to our annual market outlook on cash investments, I can’t think of a better way to describe the past year than this quote by Charles…
16 min readCo-Authored by Pate Campbell, Analyst CFA Managing the Risks Posed by Tightening Financial Conditions DOWNLOAD REPORT Executive Summary Financial conditions are tightening, primarily as a byproduct of the Fed’s interest rate hiking cycle. This portends that households and businesses may be less supportive of economic growth than they have been in the post-Covid period. Households…