2 min readDecember Cut Probability Jumps Following Williams’ Remarks During most of November, markets viewed the odds of a December rate cut as essentially a coin toss. At one point, dovish Fed speak pushed the probability of a December cut to only 30%. However, that sentiment shifted sharply on November 21st, when New York Fed President John…
3 min readHeading Towards a Fed Santa Pause? Hawkish commentary from the Federal Reserve has continued into November, with several officials pushing back against the idea of a rate cut at the December FOMC meeting. Recent remarks include: With a growing number of Fed members signaling no urgency to ease policy, fed funds futures have recalibrated expectations….
4 min readThe Disconnect Between GDP and the Labor Market When assessing the economy, GDP and employment are the two primary gauges of its strength—but lately, they’re telling very different stories. GDP remains strong, with second-quarter growth at +3.8%, the best since 2023. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model projects another solid +4% reading for Q3, fueled largely by surging investment in artificial intelligence. Meanwhile, the labor market has…
3 min readPowell Haunts the Possibility of a December Cut As expected, the Federal Reserve cut the fed funds target range by 25 bps, bringing it to 3.75%–4.00%. There were two dissenting votes, but notably in opposite directions: Fed Governor Miran favored a larger 50 bp cut, while Kansas City Fed President Schmid preferred to leave rates…
3 min readA Spooky Beginning to October The U.S. government shutdown has now entered its third week, and on Tuesday, Speaker Johnson cautioned that it could become the longest shutdown in history. Adding to market uncertainty are renewed trade tensions after President Trump threatened an additional 100% tariff on Chinese imports in response to Beijing’s new export…
3 min readGovernment Shutdown: Economic & Market Implications A stalemate over health care subsidies has triggered the first government shutdown in nearly seven years, affecting an estimated 750,000 federal employees. Historically, shutdowns tend to be either brief (lasting just 2–3 days) or stretch for several weeks. From an economic and market perspective, the impact has generally been…
10 min readCo-authored: Pate Campbell, Keren Luo The U.S. government has officially entered a shutdown. The federal budget process typically begins with the President’s detailed budget request for the fiscal year starting October 1st. However, without the passage of either a full year spending bill or a continuing resolution (CR) by Congress, the subsequent funding gap has…
2 min readFOMC Reduces Fed Funds Target Range by 25 bps As expected, the Federal Reserve cut the fed funds target range by 25 bps on Wednesday, setting a new target range of 4.00%–4.25%. The decision was nearly unanimous, with only newly appointed Governor Miran dissenting in favor of a larger 50 bp cut. FOMC Statement …
3 min readAnother Disappointing Employment Report The August jobs report was broadly disappointing, marking the second consecutive month of weaker-than-expected results: The BLS preliminary benchmark revisions (covering April 2024–March 2025) suggested total payrolls were overstated by 911,000 jobs, further highlighting labor market softness. At the same time, weekly jobless claims climbed to 263,000, the highest since 2021….
3 min readPowell Cracks the Door Open to a September Cut At the Jackson Hole Symposium on August 22nd, Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled that the first rate cut of 2025 could be on the table at the September FOMC meeting, noting that “the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance.” His more dovish…