Economy & Rates

Is the End Near? How History May Show When the Fed Will Stop Raising Interest Rates

Is the End Near? How History May Show When the Fed Will Stop Raising Interest Rates

Economy & Rates

2 min readExecutive Summary With 400 basis points of Fed Funds rate increases over the past 24 months, investors are rightfully anxious about the impact of the Fed tightening policy. Our study finds that historically falling core CPI data tends to encourage the Fed to stop raising rates. Other key indicators, however, do not seem to have…

The Inverted Yield Curve: Historical Perspectives and Implications on Cash Portfolios

The Inverted Yield Curve: Historical Perspectives and Implications on Cash Portfolios

Economy & Rates

2 min readExecutive Summary Compared to past periods, the yield curve inversion we are experiencing is quite benign. Therefore, there need not be profound concerns that an economic recession will automatically derive from this phenomenon. After the Fed funds rate reaches its peak in the coming spring-summer timeframe, one can expect the shape of the yield curve…