14 min readIntroduction With the 75-basis-point hike in the Fed funds rate on September 21st, Fed officials now peg their median forecast for the key policy rate in the 4.25%-4.50% range by the end of the year. The resulting rise in bond yields has been so breathtaking that the previous expectation that Fed funds would end the…
9 min readThe Fed shifted its policy stance radically at its December meeting, increasing the pace of its reduction in asset purchases and pushing up the timeline for rate hikes. This move was a culmination of policy being out of sync with the state of the economy, as it was extremely accommodative even with above target inflation…
5 min readInflation, it’s all the rage in financial market commentary of late. After being dormant for the better part of a decade, the CPI came roaring back to life in April, with the headline index posting a 4.2% year-over-year rise and the core index posting a 3% increase. This has resulted in a lot of talk…
2 min readThe Federal Reserve met this week to review its current stance on monetary policy and updated its Summary of Economic Projections for Q1 2021. While the Fed was encouraged by the addition of 379,000 jobs to non-farm payrolls in February and a decline in the unemployment rate to 6.2%, they also acknowledged that “the path…
2 min readThe minutes from the FOMC’s January meeting were released yesterday, revealing that the Fed believes that keeping interest rates low and continuing asset purchases are necessary to support the economic recovery. The Fed indicated that December’s $900B stimulus package, the prospect of a new round of stimulus and the continued distribution of the COVID-19 vaccines…
2 min readThe Federal Reserve held its first meeting of the new year and affirmed their commitment to a near zero interest rate environment, saying “The pace of the recovery in economic activity and employment has moderated in recent months, with weakness concentrated in the sectors most adversely affected by the pandemic.” The Fed indicated that they…
2 min readAfter experiencing the most tumultuous year on record, the major stock indices finished 2020 in a strong manner. On the last day of December, the S&P 500 logged its 14th record close of 2020 while the Nasdaq just missed its 56th record close by approximately 10 points. For the year, the DJIA rose 7.2%, the…
2 min readThe Federal Reserve held its last meeting of the year this week and to no one’s surprise, it left the overnight lending rate unchanged at the 0.00% to 0.25% range. As it wraps up a tumultuous 2020 and looks forward to the new year, the Fed is focused on supporting “the U.S. economy in this…
2 min readA Momentous Week All eyes are on the United States as Election Day finally arrives and a bitterly contentious campaign cycle draws to a close. An estimated 100 million early votes were cast in advance of Election Day and the country appears to be heading for a record presidential election turnout. The focus now shifts…
2 min readInflation & Employment Readings on consumer inflation this week remained tame overall with wide variance around the average for certain components. CPI for September was up just 1.4% year-over-year and Core CPI was up 1.7% year-over-year. Weekly Initial Jobless Claims remain high at nearly 900,000 in the week ended October 10. Surging COVID-19 infection rates…