Media – Blog
July 2, 2026
Diverging Views on Monetary Policy Path Although both the Federal Reserve's June projections and the fed funds futures market are currently signaling the possibility of a rate hike in 2026 (see first chart below), the broader consensus among economists remains that the Fed will likely stay on hold. One of the more notable takeaways
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June 30, 2026
Key Takeaways Shifting Expectations: How the Middle East Conflict Altered the Fed’s Rate Path The conflict in the Middle East has thrown a wrench into the Federal Reserve’s cutting cycle. Prior to the initial attacks on Iran in March, the case for cutting rates in 2026 was strong: Then, the
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June 18, 2026
A New Sheriff Is in Town As widely expected, the Federal Open Market Committee left the federal funds target range unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%. Key takeaways from the meeting are outlined below: Summary of Economic Projections Warsh Press Conference Market Reaction
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June 16, 2026
As money market reform reshapes institutional cash investing, treasury teams may find it worthwhile to take a closer look at A2/P2 commercial paper—and its potential impact on portfolio yield and liquidity. Key Takeaways: For corporate treasury teams managing large liquidity portfolios, the past several years have forced a reconsideration of
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June 16, 2026
Job Growth in June | AI Impact Limited The June employment report pointed to a labor market that continues to demonstrate resilience. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 172,000, while the three-month average payroll gain rose to 188,000, the strongest pace since 2024. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.3%, although on an
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June 4, 2026
What Kevin Warsh's Confirmation Signals for Monetary Policy and Market Expectations Key Takeaways Kevin Warsh is now officially Chair of the Federal Reserve after being confirmed by the Senate and sworn in by President Trump. The former Fed Governor takes the seat amid a tricky backdrop characterized by rising oil
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June 2, 2026
Core PCE Indicates Broadening Price Pressures The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), delivered both encouraging and concerning signals in the April report. The good news was that monthly inflation readings came in below expectations, with headline PCE rising 0.4% and Core PCE increasing 0.2%. While gasoline and other
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May 18, 2026
Labor Stability and Firm Inflation Keep the Fed Cautious Labor Market: The April employment report pointed to continued stability in the labor market, with nonfarm payrolls exceeding expectations for the second consecutive month (+115,000 in April following +185,000 in March). This marked the first back-to-back monthly job gains since May 2025
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May 6, 2026
Selectivity Defines the Market With 2026 under way, the venture debt market continues a now familiar trend: rising deal value alongside declining transaction volume. This divergence appears to be reflective of a continued concentration of capital into fewer, larger deals—a trend toward selectivity that emerged in the second half of
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May 4, 2026
Fed on Hold, But Tilt Shifts Hawkish as Dissents Rise At its April 29th meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee held the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%–3.75%. Notably, the decision included four dissents, the most since 1992. Governor Stephen Miran dissented in favor of a 25 basis point rate cut, while Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, Minneapolis Fed President Neel
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