Media – Blog

December Cut Probability Jumps Following Williams' Remarks During most of November, markets viewed the odds of a December rate cut as essentially a coin toss. At one point, dovish Fed speak pushed the probability of a December cut to only 30%. However, that sentiment shifted sharply on November 21st, when

Heading Towards a Fed Santa Pause? Hawkish commentary from the Federal Reserve has continued into November, with several officials pushing back against the idea of a rate cut at the December FOMC meeting. Recent remarks include:  With a growing number of Fed members signaling no urgency to ease policy, fed

The Disconnect Between GDP and the Labor Market When assessing the economy, GDP and employment are the two primary gauges of its strength—but lately, they’re telling very different stories.    GDP remains strong, with second-quarter growth at +3.8%, the best since 2023. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model projects another solid +4% reading for Q3, fueled largely by surging investment in artificial intelligence. 

Key Takeaways: When I co-authored “Antitrust Anxiety” in 2021, it seemed a tidal wave of antitrust enforcement was on the horizon. Litigation, proposed legislation, and aggressive leadership from watchdogs like Lina Khan and Jonathan Kanter signaled significant changes for Big Tech regulation. With a barrage of Federal Trade Commission (FTC)

Government Shutdown: Economic & Market Implications A stalemate over health care subsidies has triggered the first government shutdown in nearly seven years, affecting an estimated 750,000 federal employees. Historically, shutdowns tend to be either brief (lasting just 2–3 days) or stretch for several weeks.  From an economic and market perspective,