Media – Blog
May 5, 2025
Decent Underlying GDP Data Despite A Negative Headline Q1 2025 GDP contracted for the first time since 2022 on a pre-tariff import surge of 41.3%, the 2nd largest quarterly jump in the past 50 years. Since these goods and services are not produced here in the United States, they are
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April 16, 2025
Markets Stabilize Following Tariff Announcements It has been a historic month for global markets due to the Trump administration’s on-again/off-again tariff announcements. Despite the recent volatility, we are seeing signs that markets may be stabilizing: Source: Bloomberg Volatility Leads to Dip Buying Although money market fund assets have increased to
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April 10, 2025
Yesterday, President Trump announced via Truth Social that he would be suspending reciprocal tariffs on nearly all countries for a 90-day period – marking a significant de-escalation in U.S. tariff policy. While not entirely clear from the President’s post, the indication is that countries previously in line to face tariffs
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April 3, 2025
Yesterday, President Trump announced a broad array of tariffs in what is arguably the most consequential trade action since the establishment of the WTO in 1995. Invoking national security interests, the President announced the imposition of a 10% minimum global tariff effective April 5th. Canada and Mexico were the only
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April 2, 2025
Q1 2025: The Trump Trade Unwound on Tariff Concerns First quarter market activity was driven by tariff headlines along with increased fears of inflation and slowing growth. These concerns fueled a significant drop in consumer sentiment, which led Treasury yields to rally and U.S. equities to decline (see charts below).
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March 19, 2025
The U.S. auto industry is entering a period of uncertainty due to the looming threat of tariffs on Canada and Mexico, which could have a deleterious effect on vehicles and parts imported from both countries. As of March 11, President Trump has initiated tariffs of 25% on Mexico and Canada,
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March 18, 2025
Tariffs & Government Spending Cuts Stoke Stagflation Fears Concern is increasing that global trade tensions along with government spending cuts could lead to slower growth and higher prices if tariffs remain in place. Many economists have recently lowered US growth outlooks. Even commentary from President Trump and Treasury Secretary Bessent
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March 11, 2025
Yields Declined on Negative Consumer Outlook Treasury yields declined significantly towards the end of February after two consumer survey reports came in much lower than expected. The drops were most significant in the long end, with the 10-year yield declining 33 basis points, while the 2-year yield fell below 4%
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February 28, 2025
In the latest of President Trump’s proposed tariffs, the White House announced plans to impose a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, effective March 12th, 2025. This is not the first time that Trump has imposed tariffs on these metals: in 2018 Trump imposed a 25% tariff on steel
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February 27, 2025
As President Trump’s administration kicks off its second term, one of its most contentious executive orders—the mass deportation of undocumented immigrants—is already stirring debate. The policy is primarily aimed at widening enforcement of immigration laws, which could have a seismic impact on U.S. macroeconomic conditions. In this blog, we will
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