3 min readThe Labor Market is Holding Up For the fourth consecutive month, nonfarm payrolls exceeded expectations with June adding 147,000 jobs versus the projected 106,000. The trend of job growth remains solid and strong with average gains of 150,000 over the past 3 months, 130,000 over the past 6 months, and 151,000 over the past year….
4 min readStagflation Headlines Close Out Q2 Economic data released at the end of June showed signs of stagflation, which is likely prompting the Fed to maintain its current policy stance in the near term: Looking ahead, GDP growth is projected to rebound in the second quarter, with estimates currently at +2.1%. However, inflationary pressures tied to…
4 min readTariffs Not Yet Impacting Inflation; & Softening Labor Market For the 4th month in a row, both headline and core CPI came in lower than expectations, suggesting companies have not yet passed tariff-driven price increases to consumers. For May, both readings came in at +0.1%; year-over-year CPI rose to 2.4%, while Core-CPI held at +2.8% for…
4 min readRisk-on Tone In Markets After US/China Tariff Reprieve On May 12th, the United States and China issued a joint statement announcing a 90 day tariff reprieve. The U.S. reduced its levies from 145% to 30%, while China dropped theirs from 125% to 10%. This was seen as a significant de-escalation between the two countries, creating…