4 min readFed Déjà Vu This August is starting to feel like déjà vu. In July 2024, a weak employment report was followed just weeks later by Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole remarks, where he signaled that “the time has come for policy to adjust.” At the very next FOMC meeting in September 2024, the Fed cut…
5 min readPowell Maintains a Hawkish Stance Amid FOMC Dissent Last week the FOMC, as expected, left the federal funds target range unchanged at 4.25%–4.50% for the fifth consecutive meeting. Notably, two Federal Reserve governors—Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman—dissented, each favoring a 25 basis point cut. While regional Federal Reserve Bank Presidents have dissented more frequently, this…
3 min readThe Labor Market is Holding Up For the fourth consecutive month, nonfarm payrolls exceeded expectations with June adding 147,000 jobs versus the projected 106,000. The trend of job growth remains solid and strong with average gains of 150,000 over the past 3 months, 130,000 over the past 6 months, and 151,000 over the past year….
4 min readStagflation Headlines Close Out Q2 Economic data released at the end of June showed signs of stagflation, which is likely prompting the Fed to maintain its current policy stance in the near term: Looking ahead, GDP growth is projected to rebound in the second quarter, with estimates currently at +2.1%. However, inflationary pressures tied to…
4 min readTariffs Not Yet Impacting Inflation; & Softening Labor Market For the 4th month in a row, both headline and core CPI came in lower than expectations, suggesting companies have not yet passed tariff-driven price increases to consumers. For May, both readings came in at +0.1%; year-over-year CPI rose to 2.4%, while Core-CPI held at +2.8% for…
4 min readRisk-on Tone In Markets After US/China Tariff Reprieve On May 12th, the United States and China issued a joint statement announcing a 90 day tariff reprieve. The U.S. reduced its levies from 145% to 30%, while China dropped theirs from 125% to 10%. This was seen as a significant de-escalation between the two countries, creating…
4 min readDecent Underlying GDP Data Despite A Negative Headline Q1 2025 GDP contracted for the first time since 2022 on a pre-tariff import surge of 41.3%, the 2nd largest quarterly jump in the past 50 years. Since these goods and services are not produced here in the United States, they are subtracted from the GDP calculation,…
3 min readMarkets Stabilize Following Tariff Announcements It has been a historic month for global markets due to the Trump administration’s on-again/off-again tariff announcements. Despite the recent volatility, we are seeing signs that markets may be stabilizing: Source: Bloomberg Volatility Leads to Dip Buying Although money market fund assets have increased to over $7 trillion, there was…
3 min readQ1 2025: The Trump Trade Unwound on Tariff Concerns First quarter market activity was driven by tariff headlines along with increased fears of inflation and slowing growth. These concerns fueled a significant drop in consumer sentiment, which led Treasury yields to rally and U.S. equities to decline (see charts below). The first three months of…
3 min readTariffs & Government Spending Cuts Stoke Stagflation Fears Concern is increasing that global trade tensions along with government spending cuts could lead to slower growth and higher prices if tariffs remain in place. Many economists have recently lowered US growth outlooks. Even commentary from President Trump and Treasury Secretary Bessent signal some pain ahead: Trump…