2 min readA Slowing, but Stable Labor Market The September employment report showed slower-than-expected job growth, with nonfarm payrolls increasing by just 29,000 versus expectations of 90,000. In addition, the prior two months were revised down by a combined 60,000 jobs, including a notable revision to July, which was revised from a gain of 21,000 to a…
4 min readFed President Williams: “No need for urgency” Comments from several FOMC members have remained hawkish, but it was recent remarks from New York Fed President John Williams that prompted a meaningful repricing in rate expectations. In a September 29th speech, Williams said, “If the economy evolves in a manner broadly consistent with my forecast, one…
4 min readCore CPI Strengthens Case for Rate Hike The August Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in above expectations at the core level, providing additional support for a potential Federal Reserve rate hike at its September 16 meeting. Core CPI is a key inflation gauge for both markets and the Fed, and the release was particularly important…
6 min readWarsh Signals Hawkish Bias At the Jackson Hole Symposium, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh reiterated themes from his recent FOMC press conferences, emphasizing that inflation remains the Fed’s primary focus. He also used the speech to clarify several issues raised at the July FOMC meeting that had generated questions among market participants, addressing them directly and…
4 min readSofter Data Makes a Fed Rate Hike Less Urgent Economic data released this month increasingly supports the Fed remaining on hold, with weaker labor market and consumer spending data accompanied by a second consecutive month of relatively benign inflation readings: Fed Funds Futures Pare Back Rate Hike Expectations As of August 14th, the Fed funds futures…
5 min readFOMC Update: Warsh Signals Patience At its July meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted 9-3 to leave the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75%. The three dissenting members—Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari—favored raising rates by 25 basis points. The official…
7 min readJob Growth in June | AI Impact Limited The June employment report pointed to a labor market that continues to demonstrate resilience. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 172,000, while the three-month average payroll gain rose to 188,000, the strongest pace since 2024. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.3%, although on an unrounded basis it improved slightly,…
5 min readEconomic Data Pushes Out Potential Rate Hike Recent labor market and inflation data prompted the fed funds futures market to fully price in a rate hike by December, pushed back from expectations for a September hike earlier this month. Despite the shift, the broader consensus among economists continues to be that the FOMC is more likely to remain on hold throughout 2026 rather than raise interest rates. Looking…
5 min readDiverging Views on Monetary Policy Path Although both the Federal Reserve’s June projections and the fed funds futures market are currently signaling the possibility of a rate hike in 2026 (see first chart below), the broader consensus among economists remains that the Fed will likely stay on hold. One of the more notable takeaways from the June FOMC meeting…
5 min readA New Sheriff Is in Town As widely expected, the Federal Open Market Committee left the federal funds target range unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%. Key takeaways from the meeting are outlined below: Summary of Economic Projections Warsh Press Conference Market Reaction