7 min readJob Growth in June | AI Impact Limited The June employment report pointed to a labor market that continues to demonstrate resilience. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 172,000, while the three-month average payroll gain rose to 188,000, the strongest pace since 2024. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.3%, although on an unrounded basis it improved slightly,…
5 min readEconomic Data Pushes Out Potential Rate Hike Recent labor market and inflation data prompted the fed funds futures market to fully price in a rate hike by December, pushed back from expectations for a September hike earlier this month. Despite the shift, the broader consensus among economists continues to be that the FOMC is more likely to remain on hold throughout 2026 rather than raise interest rates. Looking…
5 min readDiverging Views on Monetary Policy Path Although both the Federal Reserve’s June projections and the fed funds futures market are currently signaling the possibility of a rate hike in 2026 (see first chart below), the broader consensus among economists remains that the Fed will likely stay on hold. One of the more notable takeaways from the June FOMC meeting…
5 min readA New Sheriff Is in Town As widely expected, the Federal Open Market Committee left the federal funds target range unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%. Key takeaways from the meeting are outlined below: Summary of Economic Projections Warsh Press Conference Market Reaction
7 min readJob Growth in June | AI Impact Limited The June employment report pointed to a labor market that continues to demonstrate resilience. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 172,000, while the three-month average payroll gain rose to 188,000, the strongest pace since 2024. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.3%, although on an unrounded basis it improved slightly,…
6 min readCore PCE Indicates Broadening Price Pressures The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), delivered both encouraging and concerning signals in the April report. The good news was that monthly inflation readings came in below expectations, with headline PCE rising 0.4% and Core PCE increasing 0.2%. While gasoline and other energy prices rose 5.5% during…
6 min readLabor Stability and Firm Inflation Keep the Fed Cautious Labor Market: The April employment report pointed to continued stability in the labor market, with nonfarm payrolls exceeding expectations for the second consecutive month (+115,000 in April following +185,000 in March). This marked the first back-to-back monthly job gains since May 2025 and remains well above the Federal Reserve’s…
6 min readFed on Hold, But Tilt Shifts Hawkish as Dissents Rise At its April 29th meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee held the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%–3.75%. Notably, the decision included four dissents, the most since 1992. Governor Stephen Miran dissented in favor of a 25 basis point rate cut, while Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, and Dallas Fed President…
4 min readMarch Labor Market Data Rebounds Labor market data showed signs of improvement in early April, following February’s weaker-than-expected report: While the unemployment rate edged lower to 4.3% (4.256% unrounded), the improvement was driven in part by a decline in the labor force participation rate, which fell to its lowest level since 2021 as nearly 400,000 individuals exited the labor…
5 min readQ1 2026 Recap Geopolitical tensions drove markets in Q1 2026, with the Iran conflict overshadowing much of the quarter. Early signs of escalation—highlighted by comments from Donald Trump in January—began pushing oil prices higher, though Treasury yields were initially driven by monetary policy expectations, reflecting markets anticipation for one to two rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. Following the…