4 min readLabor Market: Mixed Signals, Strong Payroll Surprise Due to the second government shutdown, the monthly jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics was delayed by several days. In the interim, a series of labor market releases pointed to potential softness in employment trends: Collectively, these reports suggested mounting weakness in labor demand and raised concerns heading into the official…
5 min readCentral Casting: You’re Hired — Fed Chair Edition President Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the 17th Chair of the Federal Reserve to succeed Jerome Powell, whose term ends on May 15, 2026. Although Warsh had been under consideration for several months, he only emerged as the front-runner after President Trump signaled on January 16th that he was reluctant to nominate Kevin Hassett, who was previously…
4 min readFed Voting Rotation Adds Hawkish Tilt in 2026 The annual rotation of regional Federal Reserve Bank presidents with a vote on monetary policy introduces a more hawkish tilt in 2026. All four presidents rotating into voting positions this year are generally inclined toward a patient approach on rate cuts, while the Board of Governors remains…
4 min read2025 Recap Tariffs and artificial intelligence were two of the dominant themes driving headlines in 2025. While tariffs were widely expected to push prices higher and slow economic growth at the onset, their actual impact on economic data has proven to be more limited than expected at this stage. The Federal Reserve also remained front and center throughout the year, as President Trump…
5 min readSilent Dissents at the December FOMC The December 10th FOMC meeting offered something for both hawks and doves, but it was the dot plot that most clearly highlighted a divided Federal Reserve. From a hawkish perspective, the official FOMC statement reintroduced language last used in December 2024, just ahead of the Fed’s nine-month pause. By adding…
2 min readDecember Cut Probability Jumps Following Williams’ Remarks During most of November, markets viewed the odds of a December rate cut as essentially a coin toss. At one point, dovish Fed speak pushed the probability of a December cut to only 30%. However, that sentiment shifted sharply on November 21st, when New York Fed President John…
3 min readHeading Towards a Fed Santa Pause? Hawkish commentary from the Federal Reserve has continued into November, with several officials pushing back against the idea of a rate cut at the December FOMC meeting. Recent remarks include: With a growing number of Fed members signaling no urgency to ease policy, fed funds futures have recalibrated expectations….
4 min readThe Disconnect Between GDP and the Labor Market When assessing the economy, GDP and employment are the two primary gauges of its strength—but lately, they’re telling very different stories. GDP remains strong, with second-quarter growth at +3.8%, the best since 2023. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model projects another solid +4% reading for Q3, fueled largely by surging investment in artificial intelligence. Meanwhile, the labor market has…
3 min readPowell Haunts the Possibility of a December Cut As expected, the Federal Reserve cut the fed funds target range by 25 bps, bringing it to 3.75%–4.00%. There were two dissenting votes, but notably in opposite directions: Fed Governor Miran favored a larger 50 bp cut, while Kansas City Fed President Schmid preferred to leave rates…
3 min readA Spooky Beginning to October The U.S. government shutdown has now entered its third week, and on Tuesday, Speaker Johnson cautioned that it could become the longest shutdown in history. Adding to market uncertainty are renewed trade tensions after President Trump threatened an additional 100% tariff on Chinese imports in response to Beijing’s new export…